Champion's Path Special Pin Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $153.73.
5 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $11.90 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−93%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $165.63.
Expected Loss
−$153.73
The average opening result after paying $165.63 sealed.
Open Average
$11.90
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$7.62
Expected range $0.00-$4.76 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.18
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$2.18 × 5 packs = $10.90
This product contains 5 booster packs.
$10.90 + $1.00 promos = $11.90
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$11.90 × 0.64 = $7.62
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $11.90 ÷ $165.63 = 7.2% • Cash-out: $7.62 ÷ $165.63 = 4.6%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.18 EV per pack for this 5-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/5pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare(SR) | 7 | $70.10 | 2.50% | $1.75 | $8.75 | 80.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 19 | $2.02 | 18.00% | $0.36 | $1.80 | 16.5% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 10 | $0.19 | 35.00% | $0.07 | $0.35 | 3.2% |
| Total | $2.18 | $10.90 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Champion's Path, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard V (Secret)
#79/73 · SR
1 in 280 packs
$268.36
+$4.80 EV
Charizard VMAX (Secret)
#74/73 · SR
1 in 280 packs
$190.38
+$3.40 EV
Alcremie VMAX
#23/73 · UR
1 in 106 packs
$5.82
+$0.30 EV
Gardevoir VMAX (Secret)
#76/73 · SR
1 in 280 packs
$15.57
+$0.30 EV
Gardevoir V (Full Art)
#70/73 · UR
1 in 106 packs
$3.92
+$0.20 EV
Gardevoir VMAX
#17/73 · UR
1 in 106 packs
$3.79
+$0.20 EV
Marnie
#56/73 · H
1 in 29 packs
$0.42
+$0.05 EV
Zygarde
#28/73 · H
1 in 29 packs
$0.27
+$0.05 EV
Galarian Obstagoon
#37/73 · H
1 in 29 packs
$0.22
+$0.05 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://www.pokebeach.com/2020/09/full-champions-path-set-list-shiny-charizard-v-rainbow-rare-charizard-vmax, https://www.digitaltq.com/pokemon-tcg/champions-path). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $29.99. Current sealed price ($165.63) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($165.63) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion's Path ETB | $244.34 | $34.06 | −86% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Pin Collection | $52.75 | $7.04 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Special Pin Collection | $165.63 | $11.90 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Collection | $56.63 | $9.72 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Premium Collection | $125.79 | $18.26 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Champion's Path Booster Pack | $18.55 | $2.18 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |