Price Snapshot
Current Market
$1261.11
MSRP
$119.99
Spread: +$1141.12 (951%) above MSRP
Buy on TCGPlayer →Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $1221.05.
17 packs plus $20.00 in promo value produce $40.06 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−97%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $1261.11.
Expected Loss
−$1221.05
The average opening result after paying $1261.11 sealed.
Open Average
$40.06
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$25.64
Expected range $0.36-$2.00 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.18
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.
$1.18 × 17 packs = $20.06
This product contains 17 booster packs.
$20.06 + $20.00 promos = $40.06
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$40.06 × 0.64 = $25.64
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $40.06 ÷ $1261.11 = 3.2% • Cash-out: $25.64 ÷ $1261.11 = 2.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.18 EV per pack for this 17-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/17pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 7 | $4.03 | 12.80% | $0.52 | $8.84 | 44.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $1.04 | 35.00% | $0.36 | $6.12 | 30.5% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $75.01 | 0.40% | $0.30 | $5.10 | 25.4% |
| Total | $1.18 | $20.06 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew (Secret)
#025/025 · SR
1 in 250 packs
$75.01
+$5.10 EV
Pikachu
#005/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$8.58
+$3.06 EV
Flying Pikachu VMAX
#007/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$8.56
+$2.72 EV
Surfing Pikachu VMAX
#009/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$8.33
+$2.55 EV
Mew
#011/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$3.73
+$1.36 EV
Surfing Pikachu V
#008/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$4.50
+$1.36 EV
Lugia
#022/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$0.74
+$0.34 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $119.99. Current sealed price ($1261.11) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($1261.11) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($20.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations ETB | $379.04 | $43.63 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations PC ETB | $550.84 | $45.99 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Collection | $140.33 | $6.72 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Mini Tin | $46.91 | $2.36 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1261.11 | $40.06 | −97% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Premium Figure Collection | $281.13 | $14.44 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $32.94 | $1.18 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $53.41 | $45.74 | −14% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $41.59 | $23.65 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $41.67 | $22.98 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $30.19 | $16.24 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $32.09 | $16.24 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Silver Tempest Build & Battle Box | Silver Tempest | $49.94 | $24.54 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Tech Sticker Collection | Black Bolt | $37.60 | $18.27 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Heavy Hitters Premium Collection | Black Bolt | $144.57 | $69.66 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |