Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $984.50.
17 packs plus $20.00 in promo value produce $37.34 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−96%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $1021.84.
Expected Loss
−$984.50
The average opening result after paying $1021.84 sealed.
Open Average
$37.34
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$23.90
Expected range $0.37-$1.67 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.02
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.
$1.02 × 17 packs = $17.34
This product contains 17 booster packs.
$17.34 + $20.00 promos = $37.34
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$37.34 × 0.64 = $23.90
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $37.34 ÷ $1021.84 = 3.6% • Cash-out: $23.90 ÷ $1021.84 = 2.3%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.02 EV per pack for this 17-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/17pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 7 | $3.50 | 12.80% | $0.45 | $7.65 | 44.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.86 | 35.00% | $0.30 | $5.10 | 29.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $67.39 | 0.40% | $0.27 | $4.59 | 26.5% |
| Total | $1.02 | $17.34 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew (Secret)
#025/025 · SR
1 in 250 packs
$67.39
+$4.59 EV
Pikachu
#005/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$6.65
+$2.38 EV
Surfing Pikachu VMAX
#009/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$7.15
+$2.21 EV
Flying Pikachu VMAX
#007/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$6.76
+$2.04 EV
Surfing Pikachu V
#008/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$4.39
+$1.36 EV
Mew
#011/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$3.17
+$1.19 EV
Lugia
#022/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$0.65
+$0.17 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $119.99. Current sealed price ($1021.84) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($1021.84) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($20.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations ETB | $331.16 | $34.35 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations PC ETB | $522.51 | $36.39 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Collection | $114.27 | $6.08 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Mini Tin | $44.41 | $2.04 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1021.84 | $37.34 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Premium Figure Collection | $226.71 | $13.16 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $27.96 | $1.02 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Collections Across Sets
See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $52.16 | $43.19 | −17% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.04 | $14.88 | −35% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $23.31 | $14.88 | −36% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.39 | $20.65 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $38.58 | $20.22 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box | Prismatic Evolutions | $54.13 | $26.34 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $56.24 | $27.31 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Victini Illustration Collection | Black Bolt | $51.69 | $25.00 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |