Celebrations Mini Tin
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $42.37.
2 packs produce $2.04 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−95%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $44.41.
Expected Loss
−$42.37
The average opening result after paying $44.41 sealed.
Open Average
$2.04
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$1.31
Expected range $0.37-$1.67 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $1.02
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 541 pack openings.
$1.02 × 2 packs = $2.04
This product contains 2 booster packs.
$2.04 = $2.04
No promo value applied for this product.
$2.04 × 0.64 = $1.31
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $2.04 ÷ $44.41 = 4.6% • Cash-out: $1.31 ÷ $44.41 = 3.0%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $1.02 EV per pack for this 2-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/2pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 7 | $3.50 | 12.80% | $0.45 | $0.90 | 44.1% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 17 | $0.86 | 35.00% | $0.30 | $0.60 | 29.4% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 1 | $67.39 | 0.40% | $0.27 | $0.54 | 26.5% |
| Total | $1.02 | $2.04 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Celebrations, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew (Secret)
#025/025 · SR
1 in 250 packs
$67.39
+$0.54 EV
Pikachu
#005/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$6.65
+$0.28 EV
Surfing Pikachu VMAX
#009/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$7.15
+$0.26 EV
Flying Pikachu VMAX
#007/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$6.76
+$0.24 EV
Surfing Pikachu V
#008/025 · UR
1 in 55 packs
$4.39
+$0.16 EV
Mew
#011/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$3.17
+$0.14 EV
Lugia
#022/025 · H
1 in 49 packs
$0.65
+$0.02 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 541 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/celebrations-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/forums/threads/all-%E2%80%98celebrations%E2%80%99-cards-promos-products-revealed.152588/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $9.99. Current sealed price ($44.41) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($44.41) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations ETB | $331.16 | $34.35 | −90% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations PC ETB | $522.51 | $36.39 | −93% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Collection | $114.27 | $6.08 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Mini Tin | $44.41 | $2.04 | −95% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1021.84 | $37.34 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Premium Figure Collection | $226.71 | $13.16 | −94% | KEEP SEALED |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $27.96 | $1.02 | −96% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Tins Across Sets
See how this tin stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Tin | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Mini Tin | Ascended Heroes | $22.98 | $13.88 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Unova Mini Tin | Black Bolt | $19.30 | $9.20 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Mini Tin | Pokemon 151 | $44.33 | $19.82 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin | Shrouded Fable | $19.97 | $7.46 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (Y) | Multi-Set Products | $35.55 | $12.54 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Charizard Tin (X) | Multi-Set Products | $36.75 | $12.54 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | Paldean Fates | $98.02 | $28.00 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | Paldean Fates | $38.32 | $10.80 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |