Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $24.11.
3 packs plus $0.50 in promo value produce $9.98 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−71%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $34.09.
Expected Loss
−$24.11
The average opening result after paying $34.09 sealed.
Open Average
$9.98
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$6.39
Expected range $1.21-$5.11 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.16
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$3.16 × 3 packs = $9.48
This product contains 3 booster packs.
$9.48 + $0.50 promos = $9.98
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$9.98 × 0.64 = $6.39
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $9.98 ÷ $34.09 = 29.3% • Cash-out: $6.39 ÷ $34.09 = 18.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.16 EV per pack for this 3-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/3pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 12 | $18.55 | 7.70% | $1.43 | $4.29 | 45.3% |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 6 | $30.37 | 3.10% | $0.94 | $2.82 | 29.7% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 3 | $17.81 | 1.90% | $0.34 | $1.02 | 10.8% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $3.67 | 6.70% | $0.25 | $0.75 | 7.9% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 21 | $1.40 | 14.30% | $0.20 | $0.60 | 6.3% |
| Total | $3.16 | $9.48 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Obsidian Flames, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Charizard ex - 223/197
#223/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$137.38
+$2.13 EV
Ninetales -199/197
#199/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$50.21
+$0.96 EV
Charizard ex - 228/197
#228/197 · HR
1 in 158 packs
$47.27
+$0.90 EV
Cleffa - 202/197
#202/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$43.94
+$0.84 EV
Gloom - 198/197
#198/197 · IR
1 in 156 packs
$27.13
+$0.51 EV
Charizard ex - 215/197
#215/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$22.68
+$0.39 EV
Pidgeot ex - 225/197
#225/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$24.47
+$0.39 EV
Charizard ex - 125/197
#125/197 · RR
1 in 147 packs
$5.68
+$0.12 EV
Tyranitar ex - 211/197
#211/197 · UR
1 in 179 packs
$5.54
+$0.09 EV
Eiscue ex - 222/197
#222/197 · SIR
1 in 194 packs
$6.75
+$0.09 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Obsidian-Flames-Pull-Rates/e2a66999-a7b5-4621-9765-c9a132e04bd2/, https://www.digitaltq.com/obsidian-flames-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.thepricedex.com/set/sv3/obsidian-flames/pull-rates). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $13.99. Current sealed price ($34.09) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($34.09) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($0.50) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames Booster Box | $374.56 | $113.76 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames ETB | $301.45 | $98.07 | −67% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | $706.33 | $354.04 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Bundle | $109.14 | $18.96 | −83% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames 3 Pack Blister | $34.09 | $9.98 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Single Pack Blister | $11.05 | $3.41 | −69% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Build & Battle Box | $51.93 | $18.39 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Sleeved Booster | $11.94 | $3.16 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Pack | $12.30 | $3.16 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascended Heroes Booster Pack | Ascended Heroes | $14.26 | $7.63 | −46% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Flygon Line | Chaos Rising | $20.18 | $9.68 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister - Pawmot Line | Chaos Rising | $20.21 | $9.68 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| Black Bolt Booster Pack | Black Bolt | $13.28 | $6.36 | −52% | KEEP SEALED |
| White Flare Booster Pack | White Flare | $12.75 | $5.76 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister | Shrouded Fable | $32.04 | $13.97 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces 3 Pack Blister | Temporal Forces | $27.24 | $11.69 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Temporal Forces Single Pack Blister | Temporal Forces | $9.55 | $3.98 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |