Evolving Skies ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $543.05.
8 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $74.36 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−88%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $617.41.
Expected Loss
−$543.05
The average opening result after paying $617.41 sealed.
Open Average
$74.36
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$47.59
Expected range $0.00-$25.73 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $9.17
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 3 rarity tiers. Based on 630 pack openings.
$9.17 × 8 packs = $73.36
This product contains 8 booster packs.
$73.36 + $1.00 promos = $74.36
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$74.36 × 0.64 = $47.59
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $74.36 ÷ $617.41 = 12.0% • Cash-out: $47.59 ÷ $617.41 = 7.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $9.17 EV per pack for this 8-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/8pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 71 | $32.14 | 19.00% | $6.11 | $48.88 | 66.6% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 34 | $124.73 | 2.40% | $2.99 | $23.92 | 32.6% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 20 | $0.32 | 22.00% | $0.07 | $0.56 | 0.8% |
| Total | $9.17 | $73.36 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Evolving Skies, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Umbreon VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)
#215/203 · SR
1 in 1417 packs
$1995.52
+$11.28 EV
Dragonite V (Alternate Full Art)
#192/203 · UR
1 in 374 packs
$394.99
+$8.48 EV
Umbreon V (Alternate Full Art)
#189/203 · UR
1 in 374 packs
$332.25
+$7.12 EV
Rayquaza V (Alternate Full Art)
#194/203 · UR
1 in 374 packs
$290.85
+$6.24 EV
Rayquaza VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)
#218/203 · SR
1 in 1417 packs
$776.28
+$4.40 EV
Sylveon VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)
#212/203 · SR
1 in 1417 packs
$360.38
+$2.00 EV
Salamence
#109/203 · H
1 in 91 packs
$0.44
+$0.00 EV
Raichu
#050/203 · H
1 in 91 packs
$0.43
+$0.00 EV
Galarian Moltres
#093/203 · H
1 in 91 packs
$0.39
+$0.00 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 630 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/evolving-skies-best-cards-to-pull-pokemon-tcg, https://www.digitaltq.com/vivid-voltage-booster-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://pack-kingdom.com/pokemon-booster-pack-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($617.41) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($617.41) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
Partner
You know what to buy. Collectify Discord helps you find it.
4.9/5 on Whop (147 reviews)
Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evolving Skies Booster Box | $2599.83 | $330.12 | −87% | KEEP SEALED |
| Evolving Skies ETB | $617.41 | $74.36 | −88% | KEEP SEALED |
| Evolving Skies PC ETB | $1212.94 | $93.70 | −92% | KEEP SEALED |
| Evolving Skies 3 Pack Blister | $181.66 | $28.01 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Evolving Skies Build & Battle Box | $286.48 | $73.08 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Evolving Skies Sleeved Booster | $276.64 | $9.17 | −97% | KEEP SEALED |
| Evolving Skies Booster Pack | $41.88 | $9.17 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |