Origins Booster Pack
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $3.87.
1 packs produce $10.19 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−28%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $14.06.
Expected Loss
−$3.87
The average opening result after paying $14.06 sealed.
Open Average
$10.19
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$6.52
Expected range $2.14-$18.24 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $10.19
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$10.19 × 1 packs = $10.19
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$10.19 = $10.19
No promo value applied for this product.
$10.19 × 0.64 = $6.52
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $10.19 ÷ $14.06 = 72.5% • Cash-out: $6.52 ÷ $14.06 = 46.4%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $10.19 EV per pack for this 1-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare(R) | 84 | $1.78 | 175.00% | $3.11 | $3.11 | 30.5% |
| Epic(E) | 42 | $20.15 | 15.14% | $3.05 | $3.05 | 29.9% |
| Overnumbered(OVN) | 12 | $115.47 | 1.39% | $1.61 | $1.61 | 15.8% |
| Signature(SIG) | 12 | $1037.91 | 0.14% | $1.44 | $1.44 | 14.1% |
| Alternate Art(AA) | 30 | $11.76 | 8.33% | $0.98 | $0.98 | 9.6% |
| Total | $10.19 | $10.19 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Origins, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Thousand-Tailed Watcher
#116/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$31.34
+$0.65 EV
Zhonya's Hourglass
#077/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$15.05
+$0.31 EV
Dazzling Aurora
#160/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$82.57
+$0.30 EV
Kai'Sa - Survivor
#039/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$80.03
+$0.29 EV
Kai'Sa - Daughter of the Void (Signature)
#299*/298 · SIG
1 in 8633 packs
$2331.96
+$0.27 EV
Time Warp
#122/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$73.60
+$0.27 EV
Ahri - Nine-Tailed Fox (Overnumbered)
#303/298 · OVN
1 in 863 packs
$220.52
+$0.26 EV
Kai'Sa - Survivor (Alternate Art)
#039a/298 · AA
1 in 360 packs
$88.55
+$0.25 EV
Kai'Sa - Daughter of the Void (Overnumbered)
#299/298 · OVN
1 in 863 packs
$214.84
+$0.25 EV
Ahri - Nine-Tailed Fox (Signature)
#303*/298 · SIG
1 in 8633 packs
$1946.02
+$0.23 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://riftbound.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/news/announcements/collectability-in-riftbound-origins/, https://cardgamer.com/guides/riftbound-pull-rates/, https://techraptor.net/tabletop/guides/understanding-riftbound-rarity-and-booster-odds). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $4.99. Current sealed price ($14.06) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($14.06) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origins Booster Box | $329.09 | $244.56 | −26% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Jinx) | $28.63 | $14.19 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Viktor) | $56.23 | $20.19 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Lee Sin) | $39.34 | $13.19 | −66% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Booster Pack | $14.06 | $10.19 | −28% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Sleeved Booster Pack | $14.23 | $10.19 | −28% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Packs Across Sets
See how this pack stacks up against the same product type from other Riftbound sets.
| Pack | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spiritforged Booster Pack | Spiritforged | $6.73 | $3.96 | −41% | KEEP SEALED |
| Spiritforged Sleeved Booster Pack | Spiritforged | $8.02 | $3.96 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |