Origins Booster Box
Average opening value sits near break-even at −$6.30.
24 packs produce $169.20 of average market value at current prices.
Return vs Market
−4%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $175.50.
Expected Loss
−$6.30
The average opening result after paying $175.50 sealed.
Open Average
$169.20
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$108.29
Expected range $1.47-$12.63 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $7.05
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 500 pack openings.
$7.05 × 24 packs = $169.20
This product contains 24 booster packs.
$169.20 = $169.20
No promo value applied for this product.
$169.20 × 0.64 = $108.29
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $169.20 ÷ $175.50 = 96.4% • Cash-out: $108.29 ÷ $175.50 = 61.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $7.05 EV per pack for this 24-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/24pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare(R) | 84 | $1.23 | 175.00% | $2.15 | $51.60 | 30.5% |
| Epic(E) | 42 | $11.30 | 15.14% | $1.71 | $41.04 | 24.3% |
| Signature(SIG) | 12 | $1041.38 | 0.14% | $1.45 | $34.80 | 20.6% |
| Overnumbered(OVN) | 12 | $82.95 | 1.39% | $1.15 | $27.60 | 16.3% |
| Alternate Art(AA) | 30 | $7.05 | 8.33% | $0.59 | $14.16 | 8.4% |
| Total | $7.05 | $169.20 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Origins, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Thousand-Tailed Watcher
#116/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$21.45
+$10.80 EV
Kai'Sa - Daughter of the Void (Signature)
#299*/298 · SIG
1 in 8633 packs
$2356.00
+$6.48 EV
Ahri - Nine-Tailed Fox (Signature)
#303*/298 · SIG
1 in 8633 packs
$1946.02
+$5.52 EV
Baited Hook
#242/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$65.02
+$5.52 EV
Sona - Harmonious
#073/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$10.44
+$5.28 EV
Ahri - Nine-Tailed Fox (Overnumbered)
#303/298 · OVN
1 in 863 packs
$173.83
+$4.80 EV
Sabotage
#156/298 · R
1 in 48 packs
$8.72
+$4.32 EV
Dazzling Aurora
#160/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$49.65
+$4.32 EV
Kai'Sa - Survivor
#039/298 · E
1 in 277 packs
$47.63
+$4.08 EV
Kai'Sa - Survivor (Alternate Art)
#039a/298 · AA
1 in 360 packs
$57.99
+$3.84 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 500 pack openings (https://riftbound.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/news/announcements/collectability-in-riftbound-origins/, https://cardgamer.com/guides/riftbound-pull-rates/, https://techraptor.net/tabletop/guides/understanding-riftbound-rarity-and-booster-odds). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $119.99. Current sealed price ($175.50) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($175.50) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origins Booster Box | $175.50 | $169.20 | −4% | HOLD |
| Origins Champion Deck (Jinx) | $19.91 | $11.05 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Viktor) | $42.21 | $17.05 | −60% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Champion Deck (Lee Sin) | $35.01 | $10.05 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Booster Pack | $11.73 | $7.05 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |
| Origins Sleeved Booster Pack | $12.44 | $7.05 | −43% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare Boxs Across Sets
See how this box stacks up against the same product type from other Riftbound sets.
| Box | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unleashed Booster Box | Unleashed | $116.94 | $124.56 | +7% | HOLD |
| Spiritforged Booster Box | Spiritforged | $137.86 | $82.08 | −40% | KEEP SEALED |