Mega Evolution Pull Rates
See the exact odds for every rarity tier in Mega Evolution, plus how those odds translate into expected value and the chase cards driving each tier.
Rarity tiers
5
Rarest listed odds
1 in 1259
Mega Hyper Rare
EV per pack
$2.07
Full Pull Rate Table
Complete odds, sample sizes, and confidence context for every rarity tier.
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare(RR) | 20.00% | 1 in 5 | 5,000 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11.10% | 1 in 9 | 5,000 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8.30% | 1 in 12 | 5,000 |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 0.99% | 1 in 101 | 5,000 |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 0.08% | 1 in 1259 | 5,000 |
Sources: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/
What This Means
Translate raw percentages into the actual pack-opening experience.
RR
Double Rare
You'll pull a Double Rare roughly 1 in 5.
20.00% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
IR
Illustration Rare
You'll pull a Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9.
11.10% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
UR
Ultra Rare
You'll pull a Ultra Rare roughly 1 in 12.
8.30% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
You'll pull a Special Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 101.
0.99% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
Expected Value by Tier
Average card value joined with pull-rate odds to show how each rarity tier contributes to pack EV.
RR
Double Rare
1 in 5
- Avg card value
- $0.75
- EV per pack
- $0.15
Top chase: Mega Lucario ex - 077/132 at $1.31.
IR
Illustration Rare
1 in 9
- Avg card value
- $4.88
- EV per pack
- $0.54
Top chase: Bulbasaur - 133/132 at $18.32.
UR
Ultra Rare
1 in 12
- Avg card value
- $4.88
- EV per pack
- $0.40
Top chase: Lillie's Determination - 169/132 at $19.74.
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
1 in 101
- Avg card value
- $78.96
- EV per pack
- $0.78
Top chase: Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 at $169.77.
MHR
Mega Hyper Rare
1 in 1259
- Avg card value
- $249.37
- EV per pack
- $0.20
Top chase: Mega Lucario ex - 188/132 at $277.33.
Top Chase Cards by Tier
The cards doing the most work inside each rarity bucket.
RR
Double Rare
Avg value $0.75 • 1 in 5
IR
Illustration Rare
Avg value $4.88 • 1 in 9
UR
Ultra Rare
Avg value $4.88 • 1 in 12
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
Avg value $78.96 • 1 in 101
MHR
Mega Hyper Rare
Avg value $249.37 • 1 in 1259
Sources & Methodology
Where the odds come from and how they feed the EV model.
Pull rates are community-sourced estimates from documented pack openings. We pair those odds with live TCGPlayer market prices to calculate average card value and EV per pack for each rarity tier.
FAQ
- What are the pull rates for Mega Evolution?
- Mega Evolution pull rates are based on 5,000 documented pack openings and currently carry high confidence confidence.
- What are the odds of hitting the rarest tier in Mega Evolution?
- Mega Hyper Rare lands about 1 in 1259 in Mega Evolution, based on 5,000 sampled packs.
- Are Mega Evolution pull rates official?
- No. These rates are community-sourced estimates compiled from large pack-opening samples, then joined with live TCGPlayer prices to show expected value by rarity tier.