Paldean Fates Pull Rates
See the exact odds for every rarity tier in Paldean Fates, plus how those odds translate into expected value and the chase cards driving each tier.
Rarity tiers
7
Rarest listed odds
1 in 62
Hyper Rare
EV per pack
$4.34
Full Pull Rate Table
Complete odds, sample sizes, and confidence context for every rarity tier.
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 25.00% | 1 in 4 | 1,500 |
| Double Rare(RR) | 13.30% | 1 in 8 | 1,500 |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 7.70% | 1 in 13 | 1,500 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 7.10% | 1 in 14 | 1,500 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 6.70% | 1 in 15 | 1,500 |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 1.72% | 1 in 58 | 1,500 |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 1.61% | 1 in 62 | 1,500 |
Sources: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed
What This Means
Translate raw percentages into the actual pack-opening experience.
SHR
Shiny Rare
You'll pull a Shiny Rare roughly 1 in 4.
25.00% odds from 1,500 sampled packs
RR
Double Rare
You'll pull a Double Rare roughly 1 in 8.
13.30% odds from 1,500 sampled packs
SUR
Shiny Ultra Rare
You'll pull a Shiny Ultra Rare roughly 1 in 13.
7.70% odds from 1,500 sampled packs
IR
Illustration Rare
You'll pull a Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 14.
7.10% odds from 1,500 sampled packs
Expected Value by Tier
Average card value joined with pull-rate odds to show how each rarity tier contributes to pack EV.
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
1 in 58
- Avg card value
- $134.77
- EV per pack
- $2.32
Top chase: Mew ex - 232/091 at $649.07.
Top Chase Cards by Tier
The cards doing the most work inside each rarity bucket.
SHR
Shiny Rare
Avg value $5.05 • 1 in 4
RR
Double Rare
Avg value $0.96 • 1 in 8
SUR
Shiny Ultra Rare
Avg value $4.46 • 1 in 13
IR
Illustration Rare
Avg value $1.51 • 1 in 14
UR
Ultra Rare
Avg value $0.81 • 1 in 15
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
Avg value $134.77 • 1 in 58
HR
Hyper Rare
Avg value $8.31 • 1 in 62
Sources & Methodology
Where the odds come from and how they feed the EV model.
Pull rates are community-sourced estimates from documented pack openings. We pair those odds with live TCGPlayer market prices to calculate average card value and EV per pack for each rarity tier.
FAQ
- What are the pull rates for Paldean Fates?
- Paldean Fates pull rates are based on 1,500 documented pack openings and currently carry high confidence confidence.
- What are the odds of hitting the rarest tier in Paldean Fates?
- Hyper Rare lands about 1 in 62 in Paldean Fates, based on 1,500 sampled packs.
- Are Paldean Fates pull rates official?
- No. These rates are community-sourced estimates compiled from large pack-opening samples, then joined with live TCGPlayer prices to show expected value by rarity tier.