Chaos Rising Pull Rates
See the exact odds for every rarity tier in Chaos Rising, plus how those odds translate into expected value and the chase cards driving each tier.
Rarity tiers
5
Rarest listed odds
1 in 1099
Mega Hyper Rare
EV per pack
$3.72
Full Pull Rate Table
Complete odds, sample sizes, and confidence context for every rarity tier.
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare(RR) | 20.00% | 1 in 5 | 5,000 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11.10% | 1 in 9 | 5,000 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8.33% | 1 in 12 | 5,000 |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 1.11% | 1 in 90 | 5,000 |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 0.09% | 1 in 1099 | 5,000 |
Sources: Community pull-rate infographic (5000+ packs sample) — Mega Evolution Chaos Rising
What This Means
Translate raw percentages into the actual pack-opening experience.
RR
Double Rare
You'll pull a Double Rare roughly 1 in 5.
20.00% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
IR
Illustration Rare
You'll pull a Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 9.
11.10% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
UR
Ultra Rare
You'll pull a Ultra Rare roughly 1 in 12.
8.33% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
You'll pull a Special Illustration Rare roughly 1 in 90.
1.11% odds from 5,000 sampled packs
Expected Value by Tier
Average card value joined with pull-rate odds to show how each rarity tier contributes to pack EV.
RR
Double Rare
1 in 5
- Avg card value
- $1.00
- EV per pack
- $0.20
Top chase: Mega Greninja ex - 022/086 at $4.00.
IR
Illustration Rare
1 in 9
- Avg card value
- $11.55
- EV per pack
- $1.28
Top chase: Froakie - 088/086 at $23.63.
UR
Ultra Rare
1 in 12
- Avg card value
- $6.98
- EV per pack
- $0.58
Top chase: Mega Greninja ex - 100/086 at $26.30.
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
1 in 90
- Avg card value
- $122.64
- EV per pack
- $1.36
Top chase: Mega Greninja ex - 116/086 at $420.79.
MHR
Mega Hyper Rare
1 in 1099
- Avg card value
- $329.01
- EV per pack
- $0.30
Top chase: Mega Greninja ex - 122/086 at $329.01.
Top Chase Cards by Tier
The cards doing the most work inside each rarity bucket.
RR
Double Rare
Avg value $1.00 • 1 in 5
IR
Illustration Rare
Avg value $11.55 • 1 in 9
UR
Ultra Rare
Avg value $6.98 • 1 in 12
SIR
Special Illustration Rare
Avg value $122.64 • 1 in 90
MHR
Mega Hyper Rare
Avg value $329.01 • 1 in 1099
Sources & Methodology
Where the odds come from and how they feed the EV model.
Pull rates are community-sourced estimates from documented pack openings. We pair those odds with live TCGPlayer market prices to calculate average card value and EV per pack for each rarity tier.
FAQ
- What are the pull rates for Chaos Rising?
- Chaos Rising pull rates are based on 5,000 documented pack openings and currently carry high confidence confidence.
- What are the odds of hitting the rarest tier in Chaos Rising?
- Mega Hyper Rare lands about 1 in 1099 in Chaos Rising, based on 5,000 sampled packs.
- Are Chaos Rising pull rates official?
- No. These rates are community-sourced estimates compiled from large pack-opening samples, then joined with live TCGPlayer prices to show expected value by rarity tier.