Paldean Fates Mini Tin
2 packs
22.7%
return
$7.86
market EV
$34.64
sealed price
You lose ~$26.78 on average
How the EV is Calculated
EV per booster pack = $3.93
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$3.93 × 2 packs = $7.86
This product contains 2 booster packs.
$7.86 ÷ $34.64 = 22.7% return
Sealed price is the average TCGPlayer market price. Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
Cash-Out EV: $5.03 — applies a 0.64x multiplier to account for TCGPlayer/eBay fees (~13%), shipping, and the gap between market price and actual sale price.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a single rarity tier contributes to the $3.93 EV per pack. For this 2-pack product, multiply by 2.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/2pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $115.35 | 1.72% | $1.98 | $3.96 | 50.4% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $4.87 | 25.00% | $1.22 | $2.44 | 31.0% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $4.01 | 7.70% | $0.31 | $0.62 | 7.9% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $8.04 | 1.61% | $0.13 | $0.26 | 3.3% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.87 | 13.30% | $0.12 | $0.24 | 3.1% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $1.62 | 7.10% | $0.12 | $0.24 | 3.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.73 | 6.70% | $0.05 | $0.10 | 1.3% |
| Total | $3.93 | $7.86 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV. "Your odds" shows the chance of pulling that specific card in this 2-pack product.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · Special Illustration Rare
Your odds: 1 in 233 (2 packs)
$514.45
+$2.21 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · Special Illustration Rare
Your odds: 1 in 233 (2 packs)
$217.50
+$0.94 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · Special Illustration Rare
Your odds: 1 in 233 (2 packs)
$117.04
+$0.50 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · Shiny Ultra Rare
Your odds: 1.3% (2 packs)
$25.37
+$0.33 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · Shiny Rare
Your odds: 1 in 240 (2 packs)
$36.96
+$0.15 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · Double Rare
Your odds: 2.6% (2 packs)
$3.97
+$0.11 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · Shiny Rare
Your odds: 1 in 240 (2 packs)
$24.67
+$0.10 EV
Charmander - 109/091
#109/091 · Shiny Rare
Your odds: 1 in 240 (2 packs)
$22.46
+$0.09 EV
Wugtrio - 224/091
#224/091 · Illustration Rare
Your odds: 4.7% (2 packs)
$1.78
+$0.08 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · Shiny Ultra Rare
Your odds: 1.3% (2 packs)
$6.11
+$0.08 EV
Assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●Sealed price ($34.64) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-Out EV uses a 0.64x multiplier (~36% haircut) for fees, shipping, and price-to-sale gap.
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.