Don't rip Mega Evolution right now.
Keep it sealed.
No product returns more than 47% of its sealed price.
If you must open something: Mega Evolution ETB loses the least at 47.4% return.
All 10 Products
Mega Evolution ETB
9 packs
47.4%
return on $41.22
$41.22 → EV: $19.54
You lose ~$21.68
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution Booster Pack
1 pack
30.6%
return on $6.72
$6.72 → EV: $2.06
You lose ~$4.66
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box
36 packs
28.2%
return on $262.86
$262.86 → EV: $74.16
You lose ~$188.70
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution Booster Box
36 packs
26.8%
return on $276.79
$276.79 → EV: $74.16
You lose ~$202.63
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution Booster Bundle
6 packs
26.8%
return on $46.20
$46.20 → EV: $12.36
You lose ~$33.84
See full breakdown →
Mega Heroes Mini Tin
2 packs
25.0%
return on $16.49
$16.49 → EV: $4.12
You lose ~$12.37
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister
3 packs
23.2%
return on $28.78
$28.78 → EV: $6.68
You lose ~$22.10
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution PC ETB
11 packs
21.4%
return on $115.30
$115.30 → EV: $24.66
You lose ~$90.64
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister
1 pack
20.6%
return on $11.19
$11.19 → EV: $2.31
You lose ~$8.88
See full breakdown →
Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box
4 packs
19.1%
return on $48.29
$48.29 → EV: $9.24
You lose ~$39.05
See full breakdown →
Chase Cards — What could you pull?
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132
Special Illustration Rare$172.08
EV: $0.17
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132
Special Illustration Rare$157.86
EV: $0.16
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132
Special Illustration Rare$123.43
EV: $0.12
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132
Mega Hyper Rare$280.09
EV: $0.11
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132
Mega Hyper Rare$218.90
EV: $0.09
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132
Ultra Rare$22.45
EV: $0.08
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132
Illustration Rare$16.17
EV: $0.08
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132
Illustration Rare$16.10
EV: $0.08
Lillie's Determination - 184/132
#184/132
Special Illustration Rare$80.04
EV: $0.08
Mega Latias ex - 181/132
#181/132
Special Illustration Rare$77.10
EV: $0.08
The Math — EV Breakdown & Pull Rates
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $79.97 | 0.99% | $0.79 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $4.69 | 11.10% | $0.52 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.09 | 8.30% | $0.42 |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $249.50 | 0.08% | $0.20 |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.65 | 20.00% | $0.13 |
| Total EV / Pack | $2.06 | |||
| Rarity | Pull Rate | Odds | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare(RR) | 20.00% | 1 in 5 | 5,000 |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 11.10% | 1 in 9 | 5,000 |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 8.30% | 1 in 12 | 5,000 |
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 0.99% | 1 in 101 | 5,000 |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 0.08% | 1 in 1259 | 5,000 |
Sources: https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/
Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Mega Evolution worth opening?
- At current market prices, Mega Evolution ETB only returns 47% of its sealed price. You are better off keeping it sealed or buying singles directly.
- What is the EV of a Mega Evolution booster pack?
- The expected value of a single Mega Evolution booster pack is $2.06 based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community pull rate data.
- What are the best cards to pull in Mega Evolution?
- The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution are Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132 ($172.08), Mega Lucario ex - 179/132 ($157.86), Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132 ($123.43).
- How often do you pull a chase card in Mega Evolution?
- Pull rates are based on 5,000 pack openings from community sources. See the pull rate table below for exact odds per rarity tier.
As of February 2026, Mega Evolution products return an average of 27% of their sealed price based on current TCGPlayer market prices and community-sourced pull rate data from 5,000+ pack openings.