Lost Origin Booster Pack
1 pack
38.4%
return
$5.42
market EV
$14.11
sealed price
You lose ~$8.69 on average
How the EV is Calculated
EV per booster pack = $5.42
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 4 rarity tiers. Based on 718 pack openings.
$5.42 × 1 packs = $5.42
This product contains 1 booster pack.
$5.42 ÷ $14.11 = 38.4% return
Sealed price is the average TCGPlayer market price. Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
Cash-Out EV: $3.47 — applies a 0.64x multiplier to account for TCGPlayer/eBay fees (~13%), shipping, and the gap between market price and actual sale price.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a single rarity tier contributes to the $5.42 EV per pack. For this 1-pack product, multiply by 1.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/1pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 44 | $21.61 | 23.54% | $5.09 | $5.09 | 93.9% |
| Secret Rare(SR) | 21 | $6.15 | 3.20% | $0.20 | $0.20 | 3.7% |
| Holo Rare(H) | 22 | $0.39 | 26.46% | $0.10 | $0.10 | 1.8% |
| Radiant Rare(RR) | 3 | $0.69 | 4.04% | $0.03 | $0.03 | 0.6% |
| Total | $5.42 | $5.42 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Lost Origin, sorted by how much they contribute to EV. "Your odds" shows the chance of pulling that specific card in this 1-pack product.
Giratina V (Alternate Full Art)
#186/196 · Ultra Rare
Your odds: 1 in 187 (1 pack)
$680.35
+$3.64 EV
Aerodactyl V (Alternate Full Art)
#180/196 · Ultra Rare
Your odds: 1 in 187 (1 pack)
$157.68
+$0.84 EV
Rotom V (Alternate Full Art)
#177/196 · Ultra Rare
Your odds: 1 in 187 (1 pack)
$24.89
+$0.13 EV
Giratina VSTAR (201) (Secret)
#201/196 · Secret Rare
Your odds: 1 in 656 (1 pack)
$24.23
+$0.04 EV
Gengar
#066/196 · Holo Rare
Your odds: 1.2% (1 pack)
$2.66
+$0.03 EV
Giratina VSTAR (212) (Secret)
#212/196 · Secret Rare
Your odds: 1 in 656 (1 pack)
$14.28
+$0.02 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR (Secret)
#199/196 · Secret Rare
Your odds: 1 in 656 (1 pack)
$12.11
+$0.02 EV
Radiant Gardevoir
#069/196 · Radiant Rare
Your odds: 1.3% (1 pack)
$1.00
+$0.01 EV
Snorlax
#143/196 · Holo Rare
Your odds: 1.2% (1 pack)
$0.98
+$0.01 EV
Radiant Steelix
#124/196 · Radiant Rare
Your odds: 1.3% (1 pack)
$0.66
+$0.01 EV
Assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 718 pack openings (https://www.digitaltq.com/lost-origin-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg). Your results will vary.
- ●Sealed price ($14.11) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Cash-Out EV uses a 0.64x multiplier (~36% haircut) for fees, shipping, and price-to-sale gap.
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.